Demand for Warehouses Decreased by 45% in the First Quarter of 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, demand for warehouse spaces decreased by nearly 45% compared to the same period last year, according to analysts from the consulting company NF Group, reported by TASS. This reduction in demand is accompanied by an increase in the volume of vacant warehouse spaces.

According to preliminary data, 320,000 square meters of quality warehouses were sold and leased in the first quarter. Two-thirds of this volume were in the Moscow region. NF Group analysts forecast that by the end of 2025, the total volume of warehouse transactions will reach 3.5 million square meters. In the first quarter of 2024, warehouse demand was significantly higher, at 569,000 square meters.

The structure of demand in the warehouse segment has noticeably changed, according to the NF Group report. The combined share of retail and manufacturing companies reached 80% of the total transaction volume since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the share of e-commerce decreased to 11%.

According to preliminary results for the first quarter, rental rates have been rising more slowly amid reduced demand and an increase in vacant warehouse spaces. Currently, the average rental rate for Class A warehouses in the Moscow region is 12,100 rubles per square meter per year.

NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko noted that market activity in warehouse real estate will remain moderate in the first half of the year. Most transactions will involve filling existing and newly available spaces. In the second half of the year, the Central Bank may begin lowering the key interest rate, which could lead to market activation as investors shift their funds from deposits into the real economy.

Fomichenko predicts that by the end of 2025, investments in warehouse real estate will decline by more than half, totaling 85 billion rubles. In 2024, investment in Class A warehouses exceeded 180 billion rubles. This year, the total investment in warehouse real estate is expected to range between 85–125 billion rubles.